My caveat with that is definitely true if people are talking about just raw numbers. A couple hundred or thousand drops can be more than enough for statistical tests though that I mention above or some of the testing Leeloo, myself, and others have done in my signature as well as just above this. A good example of this what excavator enhancer testing where 70 pulls was enough to detect a statistical difference, you didn’t need 10,000+ pulls. Hit rate is different than TT per pull obviously. If for instance I wanted to formally detect if the hit rate between two “runs” decreased from 32 to 28% in a statistical test, I’d need a sample size of 800 claims. Bump that down to 30 vs 28% and you’d at least 3160 samples to detect that difference.
I mention that because this problem is exactly something we go over when teaching intro statistical analysis courses. If you try to just get a massive sample size without any measure of variation, it’s still a largely meaningless stat that you can maybe spitball with a little. If you do try to formally analyze a huge sample size, you also run into issues where you might detect a slight difference as “significant” that isn’t really relevant. Plus, it’s time intensive and expensive. Instead you want a representative sample size where sometimes 30-100 samples is plenty, other times you need thousands. On the opposite end of the spectrum, you can get people with a tiny sample size with no statistical measures claiming this coin must be rigged because they flipped it four times and got heads each time.
Usually in classes we’ll be navigating that very subject with students and how you reach a minimum required sample size needed for statistical tests to be accurate representations of what the “true” average in a population. Sometimes in these discussions on PCF though, we’ll get people just sticking to a mantra of saying you can’t say anything unless you have over 100k samples. That completely ignores what’s being taught on basically day 1 statistics. That’s not to say you or anyone else here is falling into that pitfall, but that just seemed like a good cue to remind people about how sample size is navigated.
Just my 2 pecs, i dont mine much, only dailies on arkadia and sometimes on aris. 90% of times i am finishing lvl 5 amp with return around 65% and hit rate around 25%. Ground feels so empty right now.
Arkadia was more stable too even tho there’s less mats there than caly, people like me would mine there for that reason. I tried again last night on ark where almost half of my days were in the green TT wise and got my best return in days 85%. Seen another miner who mines 15 hrs a day out of no where says “mining return is 80% I’m stopping until its fixed” this person didn’t even write in this post. It’s definitely broken noticeable by all full time miners can we get a fix please.
Rightt what the hell I thought they finally got rid of the big 3 mine bots at least so mining could be good for a change. Now I’m thinking that they probably weren’t even banned and just had this data faster than we did since they got numerous accounts running at same time 15 hrs a day. Ehhh
Or maybe they’ve made it a lot harder because of those bots, to reduce the chance of happening again and discourage them, but needs an adjustment for sure.
That would be a terrible way to go about get 1 payback a year where only a bot could reach with so many loot instances and regular Joe would still have to quit. So that makes even less sense idk what they or the AI did lol but it ain’t good either way
Yes, looks broken in the current state.Needs a rebalacing or an price reset for the resources because of how it is which will take time.Without an official stand we can only speculate…
Did 494 double drops on NI to try there and hit a bunch of globals and many multis just under, which for my level 4 amp would be a nice TT+ every time. So I’m like wooot finally its fixed maybe. Sure enough still low 29% hit rate slightly higher than the 28% its been but not where its supposed to be or used to be so it still ended in a loss. 95% return which for hunters would be like oh ok that’s not bad. But for everyday 79,80, and one 85% day etc. and the rebalance day being 95% does not = out to ~97% average that mining tends to be about with no looter skills influencing it. Seems like HR is still the problem here. The hours I spend mining with the faster gear I have would be like a couple weeks of casual player by now. Mining was perfect no reason to touch it. Just mine bots, not enough uses, releasing bigger and more UL’s(P50s etc.), and still having mining mats in asteroids are the only problems facing mining profession/mining economy at the moment. Hoping for a word from MA on if the change is actually intended and just more volatile, or are we just lighting extra cash on fire for fun.
[SIZE=5]After 10 more days of mining my HR - TT return - TT return+% dropped also.
Am I worried?
Not at all cause TT+% is still 116,80% and if I look at my results from Dec 2025 the results now are still better, but I assume they will drop cause my 2026 start was pretty good.
Why HR dropped? 1 of the resources I usual get (15-20% in the run with the high +150% MU) was not dropping anymore but I could see that on auc so I stopped mining.[/SIZE]
Just to further pile on this thread looks like there were adjustments made to crafting aswell as mining, bp drop rate has been heavily lowered. It looks like there was an attempt at balancing and they absolutely punted it.
I cant prove anything since im not working for MA but i think its by design. Think about WHO benefits on such changes and what is the impact on the economy, deposits, etc. I hope im wrong and there will be a rollback to where we have less crap results but as it stands, i feel i`m in 2008 ish again minus the large extreme finds.
I did a mining experiment a while ago (start of 2024).
All unamped. Argus. 100-200 drops/day based on my availability.
There was a 17 days straight period with the following stats:
TT in: 2.434,05
TT out: 2.029,5
Return: 83,38%
TT loss: 404.55
Worst %returns days during that period: 49% on 100 drops and 55% on 200 drops.
Yes, i came that day to the field with 100 peds probes + finder decay and left with 50 peds in ores. But…
Total log: 96% TT return. ~10k drops
Manage your risk and keep grinding for MU.
There will be shitty periods. But it will always return to the mean.
