I have very similar numbers. In december i had 97,77% and now im at 91,74%. Another thing i have noted, because it happens so often, is that i at least once a run get 20 nrf in a row. There are also times i have had 30 in a row. Nothing i havent seen before but now its all the time since the last few weeks.
R4tt3xx is gonna have a field day with this thread.
Yes, but that is only a small sample so Iām following this up and will see where it goes.
Maybe they changed it in more volatile?
I see that happening also, but mostly a small multi appears after the 20-30 NRF.
Then it would be fine and thats kinda how it always felt it used to be. Not any more tho. I can rack up 4-5 50-60% runs with sometimes as low as 17% hit rate and each run being 1k. So it gets really expensive really quick.
That was my initial thought but I didnāt notice different claim sizes(multipliers) compared to before.
28% Ā± a couple percent is where most people typically tend to get long-term averages. Even over a few k drops, each personās averages are still going to bounce around. Thatās what a confidence interval helps describe, and you can check that with online calculators.
If for instance you had a 28% hit rate over 3000 drops (840 claims), the 95% confidence interval would be 0.2640 to 0.2964. That means if you repeated the same ārunā of 3000 drops many times, youād expect 95% of the averages to fall within a 26.4 to 29.6% range. Thatās also estimating that the ātrueā average of that population, or hit rate on MAās side for the areas you mined, is somewhere in that interval with 95% confidence. If you try to bump it up to 99% confidence, the interval actually widens and you need a lot more samples to further decrease that interval to get an estimate of what the true average would be if sampled say 100k times.
I understand your point. But here are we speaking about something else. Last VU did give almost to everyone same HR . Is not that only a few have this problem. Something is changed. Maybe is a bug like was on space mining or maybe this is the new sistem for planet-side mining. That is what we are asking right now.
Yesterday again same except 1% better return @ 80% on a lot of loot events and cycle triple dropping something is totally out whack for sure.. id count it as crap luck something I donāt think Iāve actually ever experienced on this game to date for even 2 days in a row where I mine and for how long, but many days nowā¦ da shit is broke. So happy I went back to mining perfect timing lol Iāll keep at it tho see if they even plan on paying a small portion of this back or end up with a 50% HR day to average it out and write it here
@Ludvig|MindArk @Socrates|Mindark
I get it, you cant go around and disclose how the sauce is made, but it would be nice if you could say something because:
After Socrates showed live on twitch that they can put loot in mobs on the fly where after the warlock was killed, during the robot event at Lahar, it had the new items he wanted to show off was looted and he confidently asked ādid anyone get anyting special?ā and someone replied with a new amp, i believe it was, and someone with something else. This shows its not a closed automated system.
After this last loot debacle with the Nusul showing either a clear flaw in the system, which i then can imagine could swing both ways, or that the system is manipulated in real timeā¦ not unlike the planted loot i mentioned. I dont know. But its not inspiring confidence.
The fact now several people with credibility voice the same concern.
So at the very least just tell us nothing was changed and that the ones who are confused right now are just experiencing wild variance right now. And if you did, or do, change how returns work you should state this. Not how it works but that it was āreworkedā at the minimum.
Wonder IF heās on āforced holidayā or something. ?
Hit Ratings for today and returns
HR 47,62% TT return 151,76%
HR 44,44% TT return 195,89%
HR 29% TT return 92,88%
HR 37% TT return 100,50%
I cannot complain, but had a 2 multiās
I dont know how many drops this is but i would say that anything less than 5k drops doesnt really post any real statistical signifigance. And even that data doesnt really tell you too much.
Still going.. LBML missed 3 drops today, when my amp gets fully depleted before repairing it can miss last drop so its actually even worse than shown. 448 double drops not a single global 76.84% return. TT return % is going down further, HR is the same. This is small run even but wanted to have a picture before it started to bug out on me and have to delete the run so it doesnāt look like Iām making it up. 500-1000p losses a day is some hunting losses not small amp mining losses in formerly stable areas.
Still broken and/or Happy Nusul Day isnāt paid off yet as of 2/4/26.
[IMG width=ā583pxā height=ā675pxā]https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forum/index.php?media/eu-mining-run-27-28-hr-jpg.347677/full
Thats why I do monthly results
Edit : and I never go for quantity, quality with high MUās make it so much easier to get possitive numbers.
Surprised Pikachu
For hunting my own own numbers so far show that at 10k loot events per sample we will still be something like +/- 11% from expected. At 100k we still have plenty of variance (just woke up, can check later).
What people need to do to get somewhat reasonable numbers in here is to gather 20-30 miners and collect data together and make sure none is excluded and make sure how you track is consistent.
Samples of hundred drops or thousands drops says absolutely nothing.
Ive been saying that for years ā¦
All I see in my stats daily/weekly/monthly is that I have (reasonable) ups and down, even with low skills and basic mining gear
Getting less fillers and more higher MU makes it so much easier when mining unamped.
It really depends on what I am mining but as an example, I can cycle ~ 3k PED with ~3xx drops(loot events) per hour, excavation included and Iāve played a lot each day.Iāve lost more in a week than I usually lose in one month or two(before VU 19.13.1 - 27.01.2026 I could easily lose few K ped in a single day but with 30.xx% hit rate never this amount in a week). By doing a lot of drops I could get to that average and itās not the case anymore.
I say it again, in the light of the recent events I am only asking if itās working as intended.
Itās not entirely different, but at the end of the day all youād need to do is plug in your hit rates from maybe a month or two ago into that calculator to generate confidence intervals. Then do the same for decent size runs today. If the confidence intervals overlap, then you canāt say there was actually a change in base hit rate and itās instead just random chance that people are interpreting as trend.
If there isnāt overlap though, then you can say there was a significant difference (or statistically significant decrease). Thatās why when people post hit rates without a measure of variation like confidence intervals, itās a meaningless stat if youāre trying to say returns are worse due to something outside of random variation. You also donāt need a sample size of 100k+ (as long as you do the statistical analysis) because things like confidence intervals or slightly more involved statistical tests are telling you where the average would fall if you did go for 100k samples by using maybe a couple k samples instead. For hit rate, itās actually easier than most other stats because itās a binomial response, so all you need is number of claims and total sample size or drops to start giving confidence intervals. If there was a serious drop in HR, we should be able to show that here if people include both claim and drop numbers.
One caveat with the discussion though is that we know the mining loot pool does have overall swings based on when EL was good at tracking. It could be we are in one of those troughs thatās a part of normal loot pool mechanics rather than something MA-directed.
Thatās all not to say people are absolutely wrong here, but rather that there are a few common pitfalls that come up when people say something like hit rate or TT returns have changed when they really havenāt (i.e., seeing trends that are instead just randomness).
Lower HR ā¦ Lower returns ā¦
Seen it all before ā¦ many times ā¦ maybe there is a ATH in the making ā¦ :unsure: