Risk of Ruin - Bankroll Management

[Spawn]

I am average Joe. My bankroll is repairing my dagger and amp. And I have a landarea. Thank you perceptius!

[RickEngland]

I only want to lose $50 a month after markup…ok then you need a bankroll $5000
I only want to lose $500 a month after markup…ok then you need a bankroll of $50000
I only want to lose £5000 a month after markup…ok then you need a bankroll of $500000

You also need a LA, and $100k of CLD’s, and never ever ever mention losses (as ego is more important than money).

Got it, thank you for your advice.

Rick

[duncis]

@TheRock

Put a banana on your mouth and eat it.

5£
Thanks for the share man. But do you think that the average joe will really read this? Kind of a bit advanced for the average guy. Also in Eu, you can’t really predict anything besides the experince from previous runs and data collected in your case.

Gl with the successful grinding :)

Ur bot doesnt predict anything? Make it collect data at least!

[Aio]

@RickEngland

I only want to lose $50 a month after markup…ok then you need a bankroll $5000
I only want to lose $500 a month after markup…ok then you need a bankroll of $50000
I only want to lose £5000 a month after markup…ok then you need a bankroll of $500000

You also need a LA, and $100k of CLD’s, and never ever ever mention losses (as ego is more important than money).

Got it, thank you for your advice.

Rick

I think 5$ was telling you how to minimise your losses in the hope of looting MU which would make it profitable. It’s what I do, I haven’t needed to deposit in months and I’ve got tons of items which I don’t use, with MU, waiting to sell at the right time.

But as expected, advice always goes straight over people’s heads. There are some in the community who will always try to help others out; then there are the unhelpables

@atomicstorm

Bond theory is still true today. It does not give you any real advantages, but does help you understand the composition of loot by multipliers.

You will find it here for the search impaired. You can play with what that thread means by the numbers and why short term hunts are bad here.

:ahh: that turned into a bit of a flame war from me didn’t it :ahh:

[atomicstorm]

@TheRock

Put a banana on your mouth and eat it.

5£
Thanks for the share man. But do you think that the average joe will really read this? Kind of a bit advanced for the average guy. Also in Eu, you can’t really predict anything besides the experince from previous runs and data collected in your case.

Gl with the successful grinding :)

You can lead a horse to water…

Also, tell me more about this banana… how would you eat it ? :o

[atomicstorm]

@RickEngland

I only want to lose $50 a month after markup…ok then you need a bankroll $5000
I only want to lose $500 a month after markup…ok then you need a bankroll of $50000
I only want to lose £5000 a month after markup…ok then you need a bankroll of $500000

You also need a LA, and $100k of CLD’s, and never ever ever mention losses (as ego is more important than money).

Got it, thank you for your advice.

Rick

Yea.. good job on being a cynic. Maybe time for you to play hello kitty adventures. The beauty of this thread is that we can reference it in response to comments like yours and stop wasting time on you.

Reading comprehension 1, RickEngland 0

[Rocket192]

I told you people would disagrees despite this post’s undeniable accuracy.

Some people would rather live in ignorance… with their tin foil hats.

[atomicstorm]

@Aio

I think 5$ was telling you how to minimise your losses in the hope of looting MU which would make it profitable. It’s what I do, I haven’t needed to deposit in months and I’ve got tons of items which I don’t use, with MU, waiting to sell at the right time.

But as expected, advice always goes straight over people’s heads. There are some in the community who will always try to help others out; then there are the unhelpables

:ahh: that turned into a bit of a flame war from me didn’t it :ahh:

NAh no flame war. Just truth.

I am only sharing a mechanic of probability. It is to explain why it’s not a good idea to deposit 100 dollars and go after dasps. It’s to level set people’s expectations and for the community to reference this thread when someone starts crying on the forums about how they did explosives or big mobs on a small budget and very quickly lost everything… tip.. their ror is over 75%.

[The_Jetman]

i think it all makes sense regarding bond theory, no short runs. Many actions and loots come in waves, be it rings in boxes, oils or other less common items and multipliers. So it makes sense that killing only 100 mobs you stand a big chance of missing the wave, ideally you want to hit the waves are much as possible, i’m not sure if mob populality makes waves more common or not

i like the idea of the RoR, would cover those bad days.. but from the day migration started i’ve struggled to loot well, so hurry up and end

[atomicstorm]

@The Jetman

i think it all makes sense regarding bond theory, no short runs. Many actions and loots come in waves, be it rings in boxes, oils or other less common items and multipliers. So it makes sense that killing only 100 mobs you stand a big chance of missing the wave, ideally you want to hit the waves are much as possible, i’m not sure if mob populality makes waves more common or not

i like the idea of the RoR, would cover those bad days.. but from the day migration started i’ve struggled to loot well, so hurry up and end

With large cycling in a mob, comes an increased variance. It’s this variance that often requires a suitable bankroll.

If we didn’t have variance, we wouldn’t need a bankroll and there wouldn’t be any markup either.

[Antrace]

@atomicstorm

As I intend to share some aspects of my data collection in my Improved Mako FAL journey, I wanted to spin up a conversation that it seems that most people cannot comphrend on PCF.. and that is bankroll management.
… omissis…

Same variables but we will add average markup:

Current Bankroll - 45,000 PED
Daily Cycle - 4,000 PED
Lower Bound Risk - 80%
Lower Bound Result: -800 PED
Average Markup - 0.025 (102.5%)
Markup Per Day - 100 PED
Lower Bound Result with Markup: -700 PED
Risk of Ruin with Markup - 1.56% (-0.22% difference)

…

i dont understand why u calculate the RoR only on one “bet” (4.000ped) and not on all bets u need to reach the bankroll ammount.
RoR in the second case would be more high.

[Aio]

@atomicstorm

It’s to level set people’s expectations and for the community to reference this thread when someone starts crying on the forums about how they did explosives or big mobs on a small budget and very quickly lost everything… tip.. their ror is over 75%.

This thread has been included in my “PE essentials” bookmark tab

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/gallery/files/2/7/5/bookmarks_thumb.jpg

[RickEngland]

You guys need to not take it all so seriously.

Besides it’s not about helping others out, it’s about bigging it up. Hey guys look at me, I’m going rub your nose in it, because I’m so superior than you threads.

We get the ‘I’ve never deposited’ threads, but it never comes with “this is how I exactly did it”.

Or I got 20K hof, but I didn’t tell you I deposited for 20K to buy a gun…LOL.

Or I’ve not deposited for 6 months, but I won’t tell you that I lost $50K in the previous two years…LOL.

Or I made my money in the days you could add an A106 to Apolo days.
Or I made my money in mining when you could trick the system into given hofs if you let the little claims expire (not that I did mining, but that’s what I heard after MA closed that backdoor)

Or I deposited $50K to buy CLD, and always profit, but don’t mention you own the said CLD’s (you paid for).

Then you try and bulls**t everyone into thinking it’s the same game as 10 years ago, and everything is the same under the hood. Even though we all know MM is now worthless because everything is now eco…come on guys don’t make me laugh.

Look this is how it’s gonna be for me:

I’ve got around 500 ped on my card, and I won’t be depositing $1000 for 10k ped bankroll.
I’ll skill a few pets, maybe cut down a few trees, I’m cool with that.

If that’s how the game wants me to roll…fine…mwah to you all.

Keep it real…big smile. I’m happy.

Rick

ps: And I’ve got 4 beautiful daughters (which I need to keep Fort away from), and get tons of sex from my nympho wife…so all is cool.

[atomicstorm]

@Antrace

i dont understand why u calculate the RoR only on one “bet” (4.000ped) and not on all bets u need to reach the bankroll ammount.
RoR in the second case would be more high.

The bet is per kill for which we calculate variance. Daily cycle amount is a time based marker. Since we need to calculate and reference a static variable (1 day) to quantify the risk (50 straight DAYS of 80%), this was the logical choice for the formula.

To expand, higher mobs with a 4000ped bankroll have a much higher variance than smaller mobs with 4000ped bankroll.

[atomicstorm]

@RickEngland

.

Jaded much?

This thread isn’t for you. Play the game like you want.

The analogy with you is..you can help a grandma cross the road to be helpful, but if she didn’t want to cross the road then you’ve wasted time and opened yourself to getting beat with a heavy purse.

[Aio]

@RickEngland

some bullshit

You’re not just looking a gift-horse in the mouth, you’re punching it in the face and calling it a !!!.

In half of your examples, the people who deposited have their investments & profit from their investments. Are these not… smart people?

5$ has told you exactly how he has skilled to level 100. Look at his hunting logs. Every single bit of data is there for you to look at, use and manipulate.

You say don’t take it seriously.. but constantly (and I mean, constantly) whine on the forum about losing PED, for the last 5 years.

[matthew]

I’ve been thinking about trying to hunt mobs below my level, but I would like to know how do you choose which mobs to hunt and which mobs to avoid at any particular skill level/item set up?

What I would really like to see, and what I think would be really useful, is a guide that explains a good order to hunt mobs based on skills and gear. We have the SIB ladder which I think is really useful to guide people in choosing the next gun but nothing to explain which mobs are appropriate at each rung.

I also see this occasionally in rookie chat people asking “what mob should I hunt now”.

[atomicstorm]

@matthew

I’ve been thinking about trying to hunt mobs below my level, but I would like to know how do you choose which mobs to hunt and which mobs to avoid at any particular skill level/item set up?

What I would really like to see, and what I think would be really useful, is a guide that explains a good order to hunt mobs based on skills and gear. We have the SIB ladder which I think is really useful to guide people in choosing the next gun but nothing to explain which mobs are appropriate at each rung.

I also see this occasionally in rookie chat people asking “what mob should I hunt now”.

As any of the seasoned players can tell you, I am constantly whining (or have) about what to hunt now. The answer always ends up being whatever is fun and drops some markup. Why hunt proteron if they drop nothing and are boring? But maybe that’s not true for someone shooting 200dps. In the end, you have to do what motivates you, is fun, and doesn’t make you burn out in the game. For ubers, it’s big ass mobs. For me, I am stressed the hell out shooting eomon youngs. Only you can help you with what to hunt because I’m the last person that can help you with it. I struggle with it ALL the time. Lately it has been anything that helped me get L100 and had some moderate markup OR if it was a target worth exploring for data collection.

What I’ve given you in this thread is a box.. parameters to select your hunting targets so that you don’t go beyond the risk you’re willing to accept in your daily activities.

[Fifth]

Math, calculations, Holy Perception isn’t even mentioned. Lookie here all good children of Lootius, THIS is how sacrilege looks like! That’s how a motherload of heresy and decadence looks like!

:wtg:

@atomicstorm

The analogy with you is..you can help a grandma cross the road to be helpful, but if she didn’t want to cross the road then you’ve wasted time and opened yourself to getting beat with a heavy purse.

Now that should be stickied!

[Norbert]

nevermind

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