Math´Tropia (Solid math)(Loot returns)

Excellent post, OP! :+1:

On negative dips:

If you’re down to 80%, regardless if from one run or accumulated drawdown, you need 1/0.8 = 1.25 = 125% to claw your way back to where you started. If you’re at 50%, you need 200%. Likewise, from 90% it takes 111.11%, etc. In the current system, other than by getting very lucky, recovering from deep drawdowns can only be achieved through compounding markup gains which follow the same formula as above.

That is, theoretically. The stumbling block here is that repeated sales require replenishing the resource you sold at every round, which on average may incur bigger losses than you can gain from selling. Choosing specific targets known to carry high-markup loots can work for some, but this is usually not scalable (i.e. if everybody did the same and thus increased the overall input into the same target, the outcome would not scale up accordingly). This is because these special items often are released into the game at a fixed drop rate per time unit, not per input amount. Or even a fixed number to begin with, if it’s a component for an item whose presence in the game could influence balancing, such as an unlimited weapon. In this case, any increase in participation dilutes the individual return for each participant.

To sum it up, you most likely need to find other means to earn back your spent peds than from this very same cycle itself. Reports of some who are successful do not mean everybody can replicate their results, as such is the nature of any kind of competitive system. The English language has an elegant distinction here, namely the words “anyone” and “everyone” (which e.g. German doesn’t have). Anyone can do it, no matter your background, but not everyone at the same time. Some avoid this “whatever it takes” rat race altogether and treat the game strictly as a business, e.g. by running a shop and not really playing at all. Or something in between, only to compensate for cycling losses.

There is a positive side to it: When you understand the mathematics involved in this game, i.e. basic concepts of statistics, the compounding effect expressed in the exponential function, the meaning of risk/reward ratio and risk of ruin*, you are well equipped to go where the real money is: the financial markets. You just need to find your breaking point, when the money you spend on playing a game exceeds the entertainment value you get from it. I mean, there are much easier and cheaper ways of acquiring this knowledge, like a mere handful of good books, or simply developing an interest for these topics during primary and secondary education. This seems to become ever less popular as time progresses, hence here we are.

If you want the cherry on the cake: Understand the concept of entropy, the namesake of this game.

*) On this topic an excellent article was written earlier in this forum, in case not everyone knows it: