To reach a stable average return it’s really the amount of loot instances or creatures killed that matters. As an example, if a player kills 2 Sand Kings spending about 5000 PED to do so the expected loot returned on those 2 kills can vary greatly. If instead killing 200,000 Punies also about 5000 PED the expected loot return is going to be very close to the expected average of 96%+ seen in the 2017 group.
SO the magic number can be reached by doing a large enough amount of loot instances. Where did you read that you will not get over 100% loot return?
The law of large numbers. If MA takes say 5% cut, everyone’s longterm TT return will tend to the remaining value, adjusted by their (un)efficiency and the looter professions.
Then next key-words would be ‘large enough amount of loot instances’.
I understands that they should be at least same mob/maturity to let’s say have a chance to even out my returns close to the promised %. Is this correct?
I mean if I have a large amount of loot instances considering combination of small and big mobs in one run means I have less chances to reach a decent return %?
And I don’t get why(and I personally observed on my hunting runs) I have better % return when that ‘large enough amount of loot instances’ is achieved in let’s say one run or more consecutive runs than doing fewer mobs over few days.
Why you get better return % when you hunt let’s say 1000 mobs in one go, than when you hunt 1000 mobs (same mob/same maturity let’s say) over multiple fragmented runs/days.
First of all, the only lower end limiting factor is the minimum multiplier. Since we don´t have no-looters anymore, we know that the lowest multiplier is above 0. If we assume the lowest possible multiplier is 0,33x then yes, it is possible for someone to log in, kill a mob, get the 0,33x and claim the return was 33%. That is possible for every single loot instance, and thus possible in the long term, however unlikely that is.
However, it is just as (or maybe not exactly equivalent) that someone kills mobs, and only hits 10kx multis. and comes here claming that the average return rate is 1000000%
However, the same probability(or similar) applies to lotteries, (and pretty much any instance of “investing” with big potential payouts) one could hit nothing and claim that lottery is a scam, and one could hit the jackpot twice in a row and praise the lottery.
Now the law of large number claims that this is improbable, not impossible.
The best way I´ve found to look at this game is like a game of poker, but with chips of a lot of different TRUE values and those chips ACTUAL values differ from time to time. You play against other players, and you need to win the most of the chips that have the most value relevant to their TRUE value at any time.
Just keep in mind that everytime you play a hand, MA takes a bit of your wager. Make sure you beat your opponents over time
Don´t get too hung up on that keyword, because in actuality “large enough” mean “infinite” that´s the only time you´re going get a 100% accurate statistical representation of data. The keyword in general means “make sure you kill enough”. To me that means, that if you get a top multi (10000x) this will even out to 96% or whatever, over time. (please note that this does not necessarily need to happen) Since you can get a 10k multi on a mob. The absolute minimum you need to kill in order to assure somewhat of consistancy is 10417 mobs. But in reality this is not enough.
In lieu of knowing how the game actually works, I´d say you need to keep the kill cost even in order to balance it out in the somewhat near future. It all evens out in the end. but say you kill 100000 mobs in three different maturity levels, and all the multis you get is on the lowest maturity mob, you´re still going to be below your expected return (if the maturity changes killcost, it doesn´t always)
no it doesn´t, not purely statistically at least. Once again, in lieu of how the game works, if your chances of getting a multi on any single mobs is the same, it should be the same. It might however require a bigger sample size (refer to previous response as to why)
I would like to say that it is circumstantial, but since I do not know the inner workings of the game I cannot make a statement regarding this, statistically it should render the same results over time.
Say you can do 1000 ped runs. You can kill 1000 of the mobs that cost 1 ped to kill or say 300 of mixed 1-3ped mobs. You results will be better in the first case (not on a particular run of course, but on a long enough series of such runs), but if you start doing 3k ped runs on mixed spawn the outcome should be similar (after many such runs!).
As I see it, and that’s only my view, because others draw from the pool while you take the pause. You fill it up but leave before it splashes back on you, and by the time you come back it already poured onto someone else :). Like, I’ve cycled 50k ped on a certain mob in the past few days while no one else (99% of the time) hunted it and ended up with 97% tt return. But once other people started joining the party, the outcome started to get worse. I experience it every time I grind alone on a remote planet.
Again, it’s just my view based on my limited experience, I don’t push any theories.
Ye, this statement → “there is no personal loot pool”, to me looks like BS.
For example, how the system calculate the 94% return on 1000 or 10000 kills if there is no personal loot? That statement mean that every mob kill is independent calculation! Or im the Pope! :scratch2:
I think MA don’t lie when they say there is no personnal loot-pool.
That’s true.
But did they define exactly what we call a “personnal loot-pool” ?
No.
The problem is that you didn’t ask them the good question.
If you ask, is there a personnal loot-pool ?
For sure they simply answer “No”.
But maybe you should ask if there is some personnal parameters between any specific avatar and its loot. (I don’t talk here about gameplay, tools, guns used.. but about coding)
Then the answer would probably be more complex than Yes or No.. :wise:
Because there is obviously some for many reasons.
The first one is that EU is not a casino.
And it must not be !.. Never.
Cause the law don’t allow it in many countries.
This is also probably the main reason why they added the “Looter skills” lately.
There is probably some others “hidden” parameters since long time, but the Looter skills are easier to show, they are obvious.
What MA has posted, is simply an average. You do know how averages work right? if 50 people have 0% return and 50 people have 100% return the average will be that “everyone” has 50% return.
The people who have 0% return will dream of having 50% return, the people who have 100% returns have nightmares about having 50% returns, in reality, it´s a 50/50 split, and noone has 50% returns.
If a casino has 96% RTP (Returned to player) on a game, do you thing every single wager is going to return 96%? No, simply because noone would play the slot if you bet 100$ and got 96$ back on every swing.
It works exactly the same here, like it or not, this game is a casino, HOWEVER (and that´s a big however) You have choices to make on what kind of “chips” you would like to collect (and these depends on your skills)
it´s all in the multipliers.
let´s say 50% of the loot instances are set to loot 50% of the wager cost, we now have 25% RTP.
let´s say next to those 50% we have 25% of the loot instances set to loot 75% of the cost to play. you know have 43,75%RTP
lets say next to those, you have 20% of the loot instances set to loot 100% of the wager cost, we now have 63.75% RTP
let´s say you have 2,5% return 250% of the wager cost. we now have 70% rtp
let´s say you have 1% return 5000% of the wagers cost. we now have 75% rtp.
let´s say you have 1% return 10000% of the wagers cost, we now have 85% rtp.
let´s say the remainder 0.5% return 20000% of the wagers cost we now have 95% rtp.
this way, MA never pays out more than 95% of their income, the average return is 95% over the entire playerbase. but the returns can vary quite vastly within the playerbase.
There is no personal lootpool, there will never be a personal lootpool. why? Because MA does not need a personal loot pool, it has no benefit to them. They get their cut, no matter how it´s setup.
EU is not a casino, because in a casino, you play purely against the house. EU is however a casino in the way that it works exactly the same way (why change something that´s working) as a casino. We play against the house for our loot, however, the difference is that we have trading and markup, which effectively turns it into “not a casino” since we´re no longer playing “purely against the house”. We can lose all our money, to the house, and still be in profit. That cannot happen in a casino.
The problem with a personal lootpool is that the system cannot possibly predict when a player will log out, in or take a break or simply swing from a 0,5 ped/try activity to a 20 ped/try activity.
For that set return, is simply a hardcoded function. A dice roll or a coin flip is the simplest visualization: I don’t care if YOU have hit 450 times “heads” in a row, what I need is tens of thousands of people paying 1 per try while I pay back 0.98. Also I would need a structure of betting which to treat each of those 450 events as individual ones, so I preserve my odds. Or even better I can offer “progressive” stuff, where you have the extraordinary chance of ruining your whole 450 event at the 451st try. Either way, I will win, as a house, guaranteed, in the longterm. So I would be able to say “over past years, our honourable enterprise paid back 98% in payouts”.
If you read carefully their statement, it does not refer to individual players. What they measure is input vs output on different levels of input activity. It is written there “actual individual results may differ significantly” or something like this. Wether you as an individual manage to model your playstyle to their opaque system (aka “black box”) and guess/theorycraft a behaviour which to counter or take advantage of said system is “game knowledge” and “adaptation”.
In my opinion there is a difference between what Mindark says and the way to profit. I am not happy enough with 96%. I would rather have 101-110% tt . That’s profit.
In my personal experience I only profit if I have enough multipliers. So my goal ingame is to get enough multipliers.
Experience in this game will teach you ways to do this.
Here’s a way to profit:
there are weapons ingame that can do spray damage. for example the one from rocktropia at hunt the thing.
it deals 1-2 dmg per shot at 2.831 eco . If you spray it from left to right however it can hit 5 targets at once. All of these targets take the mindamage 1.0. Thus doing 5 damage max doing 2.5 the damage. This means the eco goes up to 2,5 x 2.831 = 7.07
You do nothing wrong because you are using the ability of the gun. You use the gun as intended.
There are many ways to profit.. look good and you shall find.
Lets remember that those 96% return isnt avatar based but for the entier game. Loot is player vs player. Some have to have loses so Another can win that day. And the more you cycle a day the bigger chance you have of a win… nothing is garantiet tho.
This right here is important to note. If there was a personal lootpool, variance have had to been lowered.
Have you actually tried this though? Did you get a decent enough sample size to actually verify that this is accurate? MA has stated more or less that DPP only effects loot comp, and that your loot value is determined pretty much purely determined by your efficiency and looter skills(over time).
Mostly correct, but the size of your cycle has nothing to do with your chance to win. Effectively, every loot instance is the same. However the larger the amount of mobs you kill the more likely it is that your results converge to the"96%"
If you flip a coin 500,000 times, assuming the coin is “fair” i.e. not weighted in favor of one side, you will get very close to 250,000 heads and 250,000 tails.
Loot system works the same way - just more complex of course.
They could just track your results, which they are doing.
you do all the 0,5 ped/try clicks and then you’re 500 PED behind 95%, times 1000 needed now, you switch to the 20ped/try and that times 1000 actually happens internally, but you don’t get it because it gets scaled down to a times 25 multi. This way it gets prevented to get more 95% return.
And then they can do it the other way around as well, you do your 20ped/try craft and you’re 2000 PED behind 95% and then you switch to 0,5ped/try craft, now the multis for that 0,5ped/try craft get increased, so you won’t be behind by 2k ped anymore.
