Deflation problem

Entropia Universe Economy General Economy Discussion
1

Shortly:

If nothing will be done against the most recent and almost total lack of basic minerals most gamers will simply quit and never come back.

Detail:

As far as I can see, this case study has been introduced intentionally to handle some issues about market prices and drop thousands of non-paying gamers.

Now, however, we are stuck in an almost unrecoverable situation where the material offer of unrelevant minerals and matters is far above the needs of the remaining gamers (supposing there are about 5000 core gamers left over), and the others are missing and drive prices far over the budget of even the most open pocket.

I hope the MA team will have a look here and document themselves about the devasting side effects of the case study, commonly called deflation, and compare to a long-during real case “Japan”.

If that economy is what they want for Project Entropia, they should be aware of a substantial loss of their pocket money in very short time, and when reached the dead point, a loss of practically all gamers with no point of return, since gamers are only virtual and won’t fight for their lifes as in real world.

Besides that, they will also suffer from negative criticism, which has reached quite a high level already, so far.

At the current market activity, the dead point will be reached by next weekend, at most 2 weeks, when all private funds are spent and no buyers available.

When the dead point has been reached, only new players are able to unlock the situation, but because of the negative image aquired so far, it will be very difficult to convince newcomers to deposit, as opposed in the recent past when the market was flourishing. Thus deflation will have its deathly and definitive side effect, making all serious gamers quit, keeping however their valuable items in stock, and make therefore the game a poor and uninteresting place.

I apologize I’ve used quite hard and direct words to describe the actual situation, but it’s the feeling expressed through my open letter here I perceived from ten’s of quitting core gamers, and wanna-be’s. It can’t be only me having this strange feeling of being ripped off, pushed out of the game, which at this precise moment isn’t a game any more.

2

Total lack of basic minerals? Are you referring to Ores and Enmatter? Have you been playing PE recently? The mining Hall of Fame is so overloaded with HOFs of Iron, Lyst, Melchi, etc. Someone just got a 13000 PED Iron. Iron is needed in quite alot of crafting BPs.

Because of all the minerals in the market now, prices will certainly drop, but it will all even itself out. Hunters will go back to hunting, tailors will go back to tailoring, etc. Give it time.

If this isn’t what your referring to, then please ignore the previous two paragraphs and consider this a Bump… :smiley:

3

This makes so little sense that my brain hurts.

I tried repeatedly to understand what your talking about and could only come to the conclusion that I should have stopped reading after “recent and almost total lack of basic minerals”.

4

[QUOTE=y2ksw]

At the current market activity, the dead point will be reached by next weekend, at most 2 weeks, when all private funds are spent and no buyers available.
.
[/QUOTE]

OMFG! Your name coupled with this post leads me to say: We have finally won ourselves a doomsday poster ppl! :smiley:

OK ok- seriously, I think you need to chill, even with the best intentions you may have. Don’t worry… be happy! :bandit: :hammer:

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5

I have often thought about this. Right now they are trying to overload the market w/materials, it seems. The meteor was/is just a way to increase the amount of minerals ingame.

However, the only thing that will make the price of minerals decrease (or increase for that matter) is the market as far as i can tell.

Example: Suppose Avatar A Hofs with a mineral that, according to auction/price trackers, sells at 150%. If A wants to sell everything for at least 150%, A will sell in small batches. But if A needs the PED right away or just wants to sell such a huge amount, A would lower to a lesser %.

What I am trying to say is that the meteor was, most likely, an attempt to end the very common situation where a hardcore crafter will pay 110% for 100 ingots of X mineral, but will pay 120% or more for 1k or more ingots. That kind of backwards market makes no sense, imho.

Any “lack of basic minerals” at this point is just an illusion and most likely the result of hording.

Your argument is a little tough to follow, but I think you are forgetting why, in actuality, MA had a meteor strike Calypso.

6

Ok, I take it that you are describing the massive amount of small ores available and the scarcity of rare ore types? Forgive me if I am confused but I am not a hardcore miner or ore/matter reseller pos.

So you are saying taht with so much lyst, belkar, iron, melchi and not much rugaritz or tridenite means taht the whole market will crash?

Maybe its just too late at night any my brain is elsehwere but this interests me as we were talking about something similar in soc chat the other day.

Did you factor into this that MA are engaged in a marketing event at the moment and it will NOT continue indefiately. This whole mining event has started to decline becasue people are now coming back with losses and getting put off more and more. Deposits are drained and not enough time to regenerate or what ever they do. This will pass and by Thursday or friday we will see some twist in events and a new melee weapon with uber decay to an uber soc looted by an uber player. :stuck_out_tongue:

I agree, its not good for the economy but there is a difference here between the PE economy and a real economy.

MA is playing God and not mother nature. The difference is that God is proactive in manipulating outcomes and mother nature is reactive and adapts to events.

A few depositing crafters will politely write to MA support mentioning that since there is zero ores of use to them, they have no need to make thier usual deposit with Visa. MA will logon as God admin and change that.

PE is a massive case study. MA is not Sony and many other companies watch PE with interest. MA are not incompetant. They are just inexperienced pioneering gaming developers. BUT they wont let the economy crash so to speak. Too many new players getting nice hofs and the addiction grows stronger. It will be ok. It always is.

2 Likes
7

[QUOTE=Polynices]
What I am trying to say is that the meteor was, most likely, an attempt to end the very common situation where a hardcore crafter will pay 110% for 100 ingots of X mineral, but will pay 120% or more for 1k or more ingots. That kind of backwards market makes no sense, imho.
[/QUOTE]
It makes sense because people are paying for the time and energy spent amassing the quantity of items. Unlike in real life bulk items aren’t produced by a group of workers that are paid wages… they are amassed by people spending time on specific aspects of game play. Though I find that more often than not you can get a deal on bulk items because people do like to be able to unload stuff quickly. Just shop around.

[QUOTE=Polynices]
Your argument is a little tough to follow, but I think you are forgetting why, in actuality, MA had a meteor strike Calypso.
[/QUOTE]
His “argument” is almost gibberish that makes a whole lot of assumptions.

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[QUOTE=Envictus]
It makes sense because people are paying for the time and energy spent amassing the quantity of items. Unlike in real life bulk items aren’t produced by a group of workers that are paid wages… they are amassed by people spending time on specific aspects of game play.
[/QUOTE]

What is the difference between amassing and hording?

Also, my point is that this IS like real life b/c the minerals ARE “produced” (found) by a group of “workers” (miners) who are paid in ore.

Flooding the market by way of a meteor strike is a way to prod people into actually using the minerals or selling for PED.

[QUOTE=Envictus]

His “argument” is almost gibberish that makes a whole lot of assumptions.
[/QUOTE]

I was trying to be nice and to consider his main point. His main point is a theory of deflation, and for that, yeah, he needed to make some assumptions.

9

[QUOTE=y2ksw]

As far as I can see, this case study has been introduced intentionally to handle some issues about market prices and drop thousands of non-paying gamers.

Now, however, we are stuck in an almost unrecoverable situation where the material offer of unrelevant minerals and matters is far above the needs of the remaining gamers (supposing there are about 5000 core gamers left over), and the others are missing and drive prices far over the budget of even the most open pocket.

[/QUOTE]

Im trying to picture what this all relates to… :eek: Im assuming this has to do with crafting…describing how there is an overflow of some materials and a decrease (or stopping) of other materials. Personally I dont really know of any crafters that are lacking materials to craft with, in fact there seem to be more people crafting than ever before. All the basic materials are very plentiful at the moment, and the more rare ones arent any more higher$ than they have been off/on for the last few months. Foul and Molisk (which is neither mineral nor matter) are short supply and higher prices cause not too many people hunting them.

…if this is just a long disguised article about nexus, reselling, or inventory… then well…PE is Dynamic.

1 Like
10

Slightly off topic, but if anyone needs molisk buttons or teeth, gimme a shout.

11

Hmmm… the end of the world as we know it? PE economy mirrors the real world… I don’t think so.

My experience is rather different. A few vignettes from play last night:

Almost couldn’t get to a component crafting machine because players were crowded around them pumping in Belk, Lyst and Oil and skilling because the price of these ‘over supplied’ minerals has finally reached a point where crafting isn’t the equivalent of dumping your wallet into a black hole.

Skilling on components for a while and actually breaking even.

Listening to a guy called Ram having global after global while skilling on weapons (and wishing him on to more globals)!

Realising that hey….I could finally afford to pump a chunk of material into skilling on weapons, doing it and then moving up a level (whooot)!

Seeing players standing around talking about crafting.

So the ‘devaluation’ because of the meteor has meant that noob crafters can now actually craft without losing vast amounts …fantastic… maybe more players will stay in game.

MA …when is the next meteor due? Please!

2 Likes
12

i think the guy is talking bout items in loot :wink:

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13

Thanks too all replies, and +/- reputation points :slight_smile:

It’s nice to see you reasoning about a rare economic event called deflation, which isn’t the burden of most economic systems of real world, most of us suffer inflation.

While time has passed, some of my assumptions have been proven to be right, other’s wrong. The current PE economics are recovering from deflation, while prices are still extremely high and the market is unstable: people try to survive. Also, many new gamers have joined PE who helped greatly to unlock deflation…

The relevant enmatters and ores have reappeared, although the huge HOF’s have been dumped mostly to Trade Terminal, and not sold, for what reason ever, giving a few gamers a high status symbol and leaving the rest to struggle.

The still missing link is a regular loot (hunting) for common items, and for mining. Some regular and big crafters have quit, because they haven’t been able to sell their products to their main customers (which also have quit).

The lack of basic material (and thus too high price) is still very unpleasant because skilling for becoming a good crafter is a long and expensive way. It always has been, but now it is more evident.

It is true, many people make HOF’s of any kind, but it is also true, looting has become worse than ever, reducing the number of regular hunters and miners to few. Instead, many people start to trade and fight for each single PEC, obviously because somebody at the end of the chain must use the material, or loose and quit…

14

[QUOTE=y2ksw]

The lack of basic material (and thus too high price) is still very unpleasant because skilling for becoming a good crafter is a long and expensive way. It always has been, but now it is more evident.

[/QUOTE]

How long have you been playing? Almost all materials are lower priced than they used to be. All wools and hides are lower priced too. So it stands to reason that crafting is cheaper than before, but i am not a crafter :smiley:

And btw, you are talking about deflation but also are complaining about increased prices. That is a contradiction in terms.

15

I am studying PE economics, and this graph shows pretty clearly where things are going. The data is taken from the auction terminal and refers to common items. The lower bound at the first third of october shows the “top” of deflation, which was foreseen to come a few days later…

The X-Axis grid refers to monitored items, not days, and the Y 0 point refers to normal.

http://www.y2ksw.com/pub/pe/PE_Economics_10_2005.gif

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16

I don’t know about anyone else (but a few of my soc m8s); but I really haven’t changed my game style much. I have always carried a few bombs and probes with me when I hunt. With this new VU I have been a little more successful with the mining so I mine a bit more. I’ve gotten more minerals and enmatter so I craft a bit more. The hunting loots have gotten worse but the mining loot has gotten better so I attempt to balance my game. Did you ever consider that this mining thing could be a setup for the upcoming crafting view. For the most part the traders have been the only one able to make a profit at this game - maybe that is just being balanced out.

1 Like